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The NFC North-leading Chicago Bears (5-3) will try to snap a 10-game losing streak against divisional opponents on Sunday when they host the Detroit Lions (3-5) as solid home favorites at sportsbooks.
The Bears lead the division by percentage points over the Minnesota Vikings and lost their lone NFC North matchup 24-23 to the Green Bay Packers on the road in Week 1 after blowing a 20-0 lead.
NFL point spread: The Bears opened as five-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 34.6-12.8 Bears (NFL picks on every game)
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Why the Lions can cover the spread
The Lions have won nine of the past 10 meetings straight up, according to the OddsShark NFL Database. That betting trend alone is why Detroit can cover the spread combined with Chicago’s divisional skid dating back to 2016.
The Lions have lost two games in a row after winning two straight, but they are still in the mix to win the NFC North with a strong finish and play the Bears twice in 12 days. Detroit doubled up Chicago in the most recent meeting, winning 20-10 last December 16 at home.
Why the Bears can cover the spread
Of course you can argue that the Bears are a much different team than they have been the previous few seasons, especially with a new head coach in Matt Nagy. They have also managed to win their last two games without pass-rusher Khalil Mack, who is considered questionable on the injury report this week but practiced fully on Wednesday despite battling an ankle injury.
The Vikings sacked Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford 10 times in a 24-9 home victory last week, and Mack’s presence could help make that happen again. Chicago’s defense would undoubtedly get a major boost from his return.
Smart betting pick
The Bears are better this season. But covering the spread of nearly a touchdown is another story, as the team has beaten up on a couple of bad teams the past two weeks. Detroit is better than both the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, and this divisional game will be much tougher for Chicago.
The Bears should still be able to win the game at home, but the Lions will keep it close and at least cover.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone under in four of the Lions’ last five games vs. the Bears.
The Bears are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games vs. divisional opponents.
The total has gone under in 13 of the Lions’ last 17 games vs. their division on the road.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.