Saturday NFL is here, with the Detroit Lions hosting the NFC North rival Chicago Bears at Ford Field. The Lions opened as six-point favorites, but the line has since dropped to 5.5.

The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 44, unchanged from where it opened.

Before you lock in your picks for Bears-Lions, you need to see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say.

Two weeks ago, Hartstein told SportsLine readers to take the 49ers +3 at Soldier Field, noting the Bears faltered in their only other game as favorites this season. The result: a 15-14 upset by San Francisco. Anyone who listened to his advice cashed with ease.

Now he has analyzed Bears-Lions from every possible angle and locked in a strong pick. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Hartstein knows these two teams met in Week 11 in Chicago. The Lions won 27-24 with quarterback Matthew Stafford throwing for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns.

Detroit’s rushing attack was stymied for just 65 yards, but wide receiver Marvin Jones and running back Ameer Abdullah both found the end zone through the air. The difference was a D.J. Hayden fumble return for Detroit.

The Lions have won four of their past six games, and Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards four times in his past eight outings, including a 423-yard effort against the Steelers.

But just because the Lions won the first meeting doesn’t mean they’ll do it again and cover a 5.5-point spread.

The Bears had largely struggled away from Soldier Field, but last week they shut down the Bengals 33-7 in Cincinnati. Running back Jordan Howard ran for 147 yards and scored twice and the Bears had a 100-yard receiver for the first time this season.

Five of the past nine Bears-Lions games have been decided by a field goal or less. And the previous two times the Bears played at Ford Field, they lost by a combined six points.

Hartstein knows there’s a key stat that determines which side of the Bears-Lions spread prevails. And football insider Emory Hunt, who’s on a 35-21 run in NFL picks, agrees with him.

So what side of Bears-Lions do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine to see what key stat determines Bears-Lions, and see which side of the spread you need to pounce on now, all from an expert who’s 9-3 picking for or against the Bears, and find out.

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